"in real life you do not know the odds; you need to discover them, and the sources of uncertainty are not defined."There's also confirmation error--seeking out evidence to confirm what you believe. Know what? You always manage to find it.
And there's the narrative fallacy--making a pattern or story out of a series of connected or even disconnected facts.
from Frank Wilson: Philadelphia Inquirer: A lively, sassy study of what's not known
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